Christian Strunden Basel, Switzerland · 1989 — present

Should this venture exist at all?

Pre-investment viability stress testing for agriculture and food security in water-scarce regions. Before the feasibility study, before the developer's deck, before the first dollar moves — one independent question, answered in writing: kill it, redesign it, or proceed.

The  Least Water-Cost Review  · by the least water-cost approach
For ministers, sovereign funds and investors in MENA Independent since 1989
01 — Where I sit, and where I don't

The life of a project has one unstaffed stage.

Idea
Vision, ambition, national plans. Nobody earns yet.
Verdict
Should this exist? Kill, redesign, or proceed.
I work here — alone
Feasibility
Sold by firms that also sell what follows.
Development
Engineering, construction, project developers. They earn when you proceed.
Operation
Management contracts. They earn for years.

Every stage after the verdict earns more when the project goes ahead. That is why the verdict stage is quietly skipped — and why billion-scale ventures launch without ever having been properly questioned. I take the verdict stage, and nothing after it.

02 — Independence, in writing

No development contracts.

No implementation.

No equity in outcomes.

I am paid for the verdict, never for the project. When the answer is no, nothing of mine is lost — which is precisely why the no is worth having.

03 — The product

The Least Water-Cost Review

One engagement · one document · one verdict

A fixed-scope stress test of your venture's viability, delivered as a written document you can defend in front of a board, a ministry, or an investment committee. It starts with thirty free minutes. It ends with a document — not a dependency.

a
The model
Your venture as a rigorous spreadsheet — financial and agronomic — before any dollar is spent on anything else.
b
The assumption audit
Every assumption the plan stands on, named and challenged. The ones nobody in the room dares to touch, first.
c
Water econometrics
The scarcest input priced first, with a proprietary model built over three decades of Middle East food-security work.
d
The verdict
Kill, redesign, or proceed — with the reasons attached, in writing. Yours to use, against anyone.
04 — How I work
“We believe that every project can be modeled as an Excel file, regardless of its complexity. Therefore, every venture should start with rigorous financial modeling before a single dollar is spent.”
— Christian Strunden, public profile. This approach prevents the costly failures that result from negligent, hasty and rushed planning.
05 — The method
1

Model first

Every venture, however complex, can be modeled as a spreadsheet. Rigorous modeling comes before the groundbreaking ceremony — not after.

2

Least water-cost

In a desert, water is not a line item; it is the business case. Example, from my own NZZ analysis: growing its imported wheat locally would cost Egypt roughly $25 billion a year in desalinated water — the world market charges $3.9 billion for the same grain.

3

The honest no

Kill it, redesign it, or proceed — with the reasons attached, in writing, defensible in front of any board or majlis.

06 — Field depth

The ground is not theory.

Thirty-seven years in arid agriculture: desert-native pharmaceutical botanicals, CAM and Crassulaceae plantations under solar arrays, cactus fodder, neem and drought-tolerant trees, salicornia and saline aquaculture, algae — and, where rain is free, dairy abroad. Evidence of depth. Not the offer.

07 — Track record
1989
Ingenieurbüro founded, Basel — independent ever since
2
large-scale UAE farms planned and set up — including the Emirates' first wheat farm, irrigated with desalinated seawater
300 + 1,400
hectares, the two UAE ventures
6
regions worked: UAE, KSA, MENA, Africa, Central & South America
  • Turnaround of ailing agro-industrial ventures — I have seen how projects die; that is why I can tell before.
  • I built the Emirates' first wheat farm — and I will still tell you when importing wheat wins.
  • Author of Wasser wird nie knapp, a two-page guest feature with his own rainfall data, NZZ am Sonntag, 5 August 2012 — on why water is never consumed, only priced.
  • Dipl.-Ing. agr., Agricultural Economics, University of Bonn — agronomy, Kiel — law, Sorbonne.
  • German and French native; English and Spanish working languages.
Financial ModelingFeasibility StudiesRisk AssessmentAgricultural InvestmentScenario AnalysisFood Security StrategyAgribusiness DevelopmentWater-Efficient AgricultureProject PlanningFarm Management
08 — Who calls

Sparring while killing is still cheap.

Ministers and their advisors, before the announcement. Sovereign funds and family offices, before the commitment. Investors, before the deck becomes a decision. Including — especially — when a pet project needs an honorable burial.

09 — Contact

Write to strunden@protonmail.com. The first thirty minutes are free.

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